Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Business, Stock Market, Automnal Equinox

The Automnal Equinox is known as the first day of Fall in the year.  It is when both day and night are equally long, 12 hours each.  It marks the beginning of a the new season as well as a change.  It is the day when the market usually sees a drastic change and it affect business at an international level.

It is a day feared by many and others have learned from its past.  Many people believe that during this time the market seems to drift in a negative way.  They believe that the market seems to see profit from november to April and not during this time of year.  In theory the cycle of the Automnal Equinox has businessmen on a scare because they can only expect negative feedback.

From the year 1950 to 2004 the market consistently saw profit during November to April instead of the Automnal season.  There are three times in which this was the case and there is record of it. 
The compounded return from Nov-April of 1955 was 7.62%.  The compounded return from 1900 to 2004 was 86% in the stock market coming from the Nov-April cycle averaging out to 4.27%.  The average compounded return from 200-2004 during the equinox was 5.5% from the 2000-20004 cycle, making it 5% more than the average compounded return of .5% in the Jan-Dec cycle. Howevee, the way the economy is right now we can conclude that the Automnal Equinox will give everyone a hard time in the market.

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